Elfsborg vs Degerfors
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
DWLWW
LLWLLThe score model made an Elfsborg win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elfsborg 1.84 – 0.91 Degerfors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfsborg win | 58.9% | 60.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.4% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Degerfors win | 17.7% | 16.0% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 51.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 31.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 49.9% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 35.6% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elfsborg 40.4 / Degerfors 33.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.