Malmo FF vs Djurgarden
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-24 · 19:00 CET
DLWLW
DWWLLThe score model makes a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 49.4% vs 41.5% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF 1.59 – 1.40 Djurgarden.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 41.8% | 36.6% | +5.2% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.0% | -1.4% |
| Djurgarden win | 33.5% | 37.4% | -3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 59.9% | -2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.1% | 39.4% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 63.0% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.4% | 41.5% | +7.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF 40.2 / Djurgarden 39.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.