Hammarby vs GAIS
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 16:30 CET
WWDWW
WLDWLThe score model makes a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 59.3% vs 39.6% implied (+19.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby 1.49 – 0.82 GAIS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby win | 52.9% | 65.4% | -12.5% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 20.4% | +6.4% |
| GAIS win | 20.4% | 14.2% | +6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 60.4% | -19.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 39.4% | -19.1% |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | 54.3% | -10.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 41.4% | -18.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hammarby 40.1 / GAIS 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.