Goteborg vs Elfsborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 14:00 CET
DWWWW
DWLWWThe score model made an Elfsborg win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goteborg 1.32 – 1.51 Elfsborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg win | 32.8% | 36.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.6% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Elfsborg win | 41.6% | 36.2% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 53.2% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 32.7% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 58.3% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 36.1% | +1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goteborg 40.1 / Elfsborg 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.