Goteborg vs Elfsborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 14:00 CET
WLWWL
LLWWWThe score model makes an Elfsborg win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Elfsborg win — 41.3% vs 35.9% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goteborg 1.32 – 1.50 Elfsborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg win | 33.2% | 36.6% | -3.5% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.5% | -2.0% |
| Elfsborg win | 41.3% | 35.9% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 53.3% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 32.7% | -1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 58.4% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 36.5% | +1.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goteborg 40.4 / Elfsborg 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.