Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 16:30 CET
LDLDW
LLLWWThe score model makes a Brommapojkarna win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Brommapojkarna win — 51.4% vs 45.9% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brommapojkarna 1.70 – 1.09 Degerfors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna win | 51.4% | 45.9% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 27.3% | -2.8% |
| Degerfors win | 24.1% | 26.9% | -2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 51.1% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 30.2% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 54.7% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 34.5% | -5.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brommapojkarna 39.6 / Degerfors 33.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.