Sirius vs Hacken
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-21 · 19:00 CET
WWWDL
WDDLWThe score model makes a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 77%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 3.5 goals — 58.1% vs 48.1% implied (+10.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sirius 2.46 – 1.61 Hacken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius win | 56.3% | 52.1% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 19.2% | 22.8% | -3.6% |
| Hacken win | 24.5% | 25.1% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.3% | 68.1% | +9.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58.1% | 48.1% | +10.0% |
| Both teams to score | 73.4% | 66.9% | +6.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.6% | 46.9% | +5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sirius 40.4 / Hacken 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.