Hacken vs Halmstad
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-17 · 19:00 CET
WLDDW
DWLLWThe score model made a Hacken win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hacken 2.13 – 0.88 Halmstad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hacken win | 65.9% | 71.0% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.0% | 17.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Halmstad win | 14.2% | 11.8% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 66.6% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 45.8% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 55.3% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 45.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hacken 39.5 / Halmstad 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.