Kalmar vs Hammarby
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-16 · 16:30 CET
DLLLL
WLDWWThe score model made a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalmar 0.98 – 1.81 Hammarby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar win | 19.9% | 23.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 25.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Hammarby win | 56.4% | 51.3% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 55.8% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 35.0% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 57.6% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 38.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalmar 25.4 / Hammarby 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.