Djurgarden vs AIK
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-16 · 14:00 CET
WWWWL
WDLDLThe score model made a Djurgarden win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Djurgarden 1.73 – 0.97 AIK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden win | 54.9% | 61.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 21.5% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| AIK win | 20.7% | 17.5% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 62.1% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 41.2% | -12.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 58.3% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 42.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Djurgarden 38.8 / AIK 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.