Degerfors vs Goteborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-16 · 14:00 CET
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LWLWWThe score model makes an Goteborg win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.2% vs 70.3% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Degerfors 1.19 – 1.38 Goteborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors win | 32.0% | 31.9% | +0.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% | 28.1% | -0.9% |
| Goteborg win | 40.8% | 40.0% | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 50.3% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.8% | 29.7% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 55.6% | -3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 34.7% | -3.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Degerfors 32.6 / Goteborg 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.