Degerfors vs Goteborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-16 · 14:00 CET
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DWWWWThe score model made a Goteborg win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Degerfors 1.19 – 1.37 Goteborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors win | 32.1% | 31.3% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 28.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Goteborg win | 40.6% | 40.5% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 50.4% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 29.9% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 55.7% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 34.7% | -3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Degerfors 32.5 / Goteborg 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.