Mjallby vs Sirius
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
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LLWWWThe score model made a Mjallby win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 4:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mjallby 1.68 – 1.33 Sirius.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby win | 45.2% | 27.8% | +17.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Sirius win | 30.2% | 45.7% | -15.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 55.5% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 35.3% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 59.0% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 38.4% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mjallby 38.6 / Sirius 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.