Mjallby vs Sirius
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
DLDLL
WWWWDThe score model makes a Mjallby win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Mjallby win — 45.0% vs 29.0% implied (+16.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mjallby 1.67 – 1.34 Sirius.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby win | 45.0% | 29.0% | +16.0% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.9% | -1.3% |
| Sirius win | 30.4% | 45.1% | -14.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 56.9% | +1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 36.2% | -0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 59.8% | +0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 39.0% | -1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mjallby 38.8 / Sirius 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.