Cacereno vs Unionistas
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-10 · 18:45 CET
DWWDL
LLWLWThe score model makes a Cacereno win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cacereno 1.34 – 1.03 Unionistas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cacereno win | 43.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 28.5% | — | — |
| Unionistas win | 28.0% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.6% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cacereno 29.4 / Unionistas 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.