Daegu vs Gimhae
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-11-22 · 06:00 CET
LWWDW
DLWDLThe score model makes a Daegu win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 59.1% vs 55.8% implied (+3.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daegu 2.34 – 1.05 Gimhae.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daegu win | 65.8% | 70.3% | -4.6% |
| Draw | 18.8% | 16.9% | +1.9% |
| Gimhae win | 15.4% | 12.8% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 66.3% | -0.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 46.2% | -2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 55.8% | +3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 44.7% | +1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Daegu 23.3 / Gimhae 24.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Daegu vs Gimhae in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.