Seongnam vs Yongin
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-11-21 · 08:30 CET
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LLWWLThe score model makes a Seongnam win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.8% vs 66.4% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seongnam 1.36 – 1.17 Yongin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seongnam win | 41.0% | 42.7% | -1.8% |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.9% | -0.7% |
| Yongin win | 31.8% | 29.4% | +2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 48.4% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 28.5% | -3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 53.2% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 33.6% | -5.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Seongnam 49.5 / Yongin 24.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Seongnam vs Yongin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.