Gimpo FC vs Suwon FC
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-11-21 · 08:30 CET
LWLLD
WWLWWThe score model makes a Suwon FC win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.7% vs 65.4% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimpo FC 0.99 – 1.66 Suwon FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimpo FC win | 22.2% | 24.1% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.0% | +0.0% |
| Suwon FC win | 52.8% | 51.0% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 55.2% | -6.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 34.6% | -7.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 56.6% | -5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 38.1% | -5.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gimpo FC 49.5 / Suwon FC 24.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gimpo FC vs Suwon FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.