Busan vs Cheongju
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-11-21 · 06:00 CET
LDWWL
WWLLLThe score model makes a Busan win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.1% vs 68.7% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Busan 1.51 – 1.07 Cheongju.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Busan win | 47.2% | 45.7% | +1.5% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.2% | +0.1% |
| Cheongju win | 26.5% | 28.1% | -1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 51.6% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 31.3% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 55.4% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 34.9% | -3.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Busan 49.4 / Cheongju 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Busan vs Cheongju in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.