Gimhae vs Hwaseong
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-11-07 · 08:30 CET
LDLWD
DLLDLThe score model makes a Hwaseong win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gimhae win — 26.2% vs 21.3% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimhae 1.12 – 1.61 Hwaseong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimhae win | 26.2% | 21.3% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 24.4% | +1.2% |
| Hwaseong win | 48.2% | 54.3% | -6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 53.2% | -1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 32.7% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 53.9% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 36.4% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gimhae 23.9 / Hwaseong 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gimhae vs Hwaseong in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.