Suwon Bluewings vs Ansan Greeners
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-10-11 · 07:00 CET
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LWLLLThe score model made a Suwon Bluewings win the most likely outcome at 73%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Suwon Bluewings 2.30 – 0.72 Ansan Greeners.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon Bluewings win | 72.7% | 75.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.7% | 15.3% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Ansan Greeners win | 9.7% | 8.9% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 62.5% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 41.8% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 46.5% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 42.6% | -10.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Suwon Bluewings 45.7 / Ansan Greeners 49.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.