Gimhae vs Asan
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-10-10 · 09:30 CET
LDDLL
WLLLWThe score model makes an Asan win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Asan win — 58.9% vs 45.6% implied (+13.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimhae 0.87 – 1.80 Asan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimhae win | 17.3% | 27.7% | -10.4% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.7% | -2.9% |
| Asan win | 58.9% | 45.6% | +13.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 49.2% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 29.0% | -1.0% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 53.4% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 33.5% | +0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimhae 21.1 / Asan 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.