Suwon FC vs Busan
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-30 · 12:30 CET
WDDDW
DLLWLThe score model made a Suwon FC win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Suwon FC 1.90 – 1.30 Busan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon FC win | 51.1% | 44.2% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 26.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Busan win | 25.6% | 29.8% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 59.1% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% | 38.7% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 62.1% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 40.5% | +3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Suwon FC 17.5 / Busan 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.