Seongnam vs Seoul E-Land
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-29 · 12:30 CET
WDWLD
DDWLWThe score model made a Seoul E-Land win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seongnam 1.11 – 1.44 Seoul E-Land.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seongnam win | 28.3% | 30.4% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 28.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Seoul E-Land win | 44.2% | 41.5% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 48.3% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 28.1% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 53.4% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 33.4% | -9.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Seongnam 47.8 / Seoul E-Land 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.