Gimpo FC vs Suwon Bluewings
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-29 · 12:30 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Suwon Bluewings win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimpo FC 1.05 – 1.17 Suwon Bluewings.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimpo FC win | 31.9% | 29.9% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 28.4% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Suwon Bluewings win | 38.0% | 41.8% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 48.3% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.5% | 28.0% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 53.6% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 33.3% | -12.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimpo FC 48.3 / Suwon Bluewings 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.