Jeonnam vs Cheonan City
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-28 · 12:30 CET
WDDDL
LDDDLThe score model made a Jeonnam win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeonnam 1.85 – 1.33 Cheonan City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeonnam win | 49.0% | 39.2% | +9.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.9% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Cheonan City win | 27.2% | 33.9% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 54.5% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 33.7% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 58.5% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 37.0% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeonnam 48.4 / Cheonan City 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.