Ansan Greeners vs Daegu
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-28 · 12:30 CET
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DWDWLThe score model made a Daegu win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ansan Greeners 1.03 – 2.24 Daegu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansan Greeners win | 15.7% | 14.5% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.1% | 19.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Daegu win | 64.3% | 65.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | 62.0% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.3% | 41.5% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 55.9% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 42.5% | -6.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ansan Greeners 49.2 / Daegu 18.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.