Asan vs Yongin
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-23 · 12:30 CET
WLLLW
WDDLDThe score model made an Asan win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Asan 1.52 – 1.13 Yongin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asan win | 45.5% | 46.4% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.1% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Yongin win | 27.7% | 26.5% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 49.6% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 29.2% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 53.8% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 34.0% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Asan 48.9 / Yongin 16.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.