Daegu vs Busan
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
DLLWW
LLLLDThe score model makes a Daegu win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 64.8% vs 59.3% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daegu 1.86 – 1.48 Busan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daegu win | 46.1% | 45.5% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.4% | -1.9% |
| Busan win | 30.4% | 29.1% | +1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 59.3% | +5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 38.5% | +4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | 61.6% | +4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 40.6% | +0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daegu 17.7 / Busan 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.