Daegu vs Busan
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
DWDWL
DLLWLThe score model made a Daegu win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daegu 1.86 – 1.48 Busan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daegu win | 46.1% | 46.6% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.6% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Busan win | 30.4% | 27.8% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 58.2% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 37.3% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | 60.7% | +5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 39.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daegu 17.7 / Busan 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.