Cheonan City vs Suwon Bluewings
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
LLDLD
DWDWDThe score model makes an Suwon Bluewings win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.4% vs 61.6% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheonan City 1.08 – 1.88 Suwon Bluewings.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheonan City win | 21.1% | 20.3% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.7% | -0.2% |
| Suwon Bluewings win | 55.4% | 56.0% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 56.3% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 35.3% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 55.6% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 38.4% | -5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheonan City 48.5 / Suwon Bluewings 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.