Ansan Greeners vs Seongnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
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WDWLDThe score model made a Seongnam win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ansan Greeners 0.88 – 1.35 Seongnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansan Greeners win | 23.7% | 20.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 25.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Seongnam win | 47.1% | 53.5% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 48.3% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.7% | 27.8% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 50.3% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.1% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ansan Greeners 48.8 / Seongnam 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.