Ansan Greeners vs Seongnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
LWDDL
LWLWLThe score model makes an Seongnam win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 61.4% vs 51.5% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ansan Greeners 0.88 – 1.35 Seongnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ansan Greeners win | 23.8% | 20.7% | +3.0% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 25.9% | +3.3% |
| Seongnam win | 47.1% | 53.4% | -6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 48.5% | -9.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.7% | 28.2% | -9.4% |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | 50.3% | -6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 33.3% | -3.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ansan Greeners 49.1 / Seongnam 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.