Seoul E-Land vs Ansan Greeners
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-16 · 12:30 CET
DDWLW
LLWLLThe score model made a Seoul E-Land win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seoul E-Land 2.13 – 0.83 Ansan Greeners.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul E-Land win | 66.9% | 70.7% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.1% | 18.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Ansan Greeners win | 13.0% | 10.9% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | 62.2% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.5% | 41.4% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 51.5% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 42.0% | -10.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Seoul E-Land 48.5 / Ansan Greeners 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.