Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon FC
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-15 · 12:30 CET
LDWDW
WWDWWThe score model makes an Suwon FC win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Suwon FC win — 38.0% vs 27.2% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Suwon Bluewings 1.56 – 1.57 Suwon FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon Bluewings win | 37.5% | 47.1% | -9.6% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.7% | -1.2% |
| Suwon FC win | 38.0% | 27.2% | +10.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 56.8% | +3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.1% | 35.8% | +2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 59.3% | +3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 38.8% | -4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Suwon Bluewings 43.9 / Suwon FC 16.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.