Cheongju vs Jeonnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-15 · 12:30 CET
DWDDL
DLWDLThe score model makes an Jeonnam win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Jeonnam win — 46.7% vs 34.6% implied (+12.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheongju 1.15 – 1.57 Jeonnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheongju win | 27.5% | 37.3% | -9.8% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.1% | -2.2% |
| Jeonnam win | 46.7% | 34.6% | +12.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 49.9% | +1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 29.3% | -0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 55.4% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 33.8% | -5.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheongju 48.1 / Jeonnam 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.