Incheon vs Ulsan HD
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-21 · 08:30 CET
WDWWL
LWDWWThe score model makes an Incheon win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Incheon win — 41.1% vs 34.8% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Incheon 1.47 – 1.24 Ulsan HD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon win | 41.1% | 34.8% | +6.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 28.0% | +0.2% |
| Ulsan HD win | 30.7% | 37.2% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 51.9% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 32.0% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 57.1% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 36.1% | -2.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Incheon 36.7 / Ulsan HD 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Incheon vs Ulsan HD in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.