Gangwon vs Daejeon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-21 · 08:30 CET
WDDLW
WWWDWThe score model makes a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gangwon win — 41.0% vs 33.0% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.50 – 1.29 Daejeon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 41.0% | 33.0% | +8.0% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.7% | -2.0% |
| Daejeon win | 31.3% | 37.3% | -5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 45.6% | +7.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 26.1% | +4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 52.4% | +5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 31.8% | +1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gangwon 49.1 / Daejeon 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gangwon vs Daejeon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.