Gimcheon Sangmu vs Anyang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-10-10 · 09:30 CET
LDDDW
DLLDWThe score model makes a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 68.1% vs 63.3% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu 1.52 – 1.18 Anyang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 44.1% | 50.2% | -6.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 25.6% | +2.2% |
| Anyang win | 28.1% | 24.3% | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 53.8% | -3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 33.3% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 55.9% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 36.7% | -4.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimcheon Sangmu 44.3 / Anyang 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.