Incheon vs Pohang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-10-09 · 09:30 CET
WDWWL
DWLDDThe score model made an Incheon win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 3:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Incheon 1.09 – 0.99 Pohang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon win | 36.1% | 38.7% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.8% | 30.3% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Pohang win | 31.1% | 31.0% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 40.3% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.8% | 20.8% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 47.0% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 27.3% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Incheon 34.2 / Pohang 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Incheon vs Pohang in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.