Gangwon vs Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-10-09 · 09:30 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.29 – 0.93 Bucheon FC 1995.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 43.5% | 54.1% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.9% | 26.4% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Bucheon FC 1995 win | 25.5% | 19.5% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 44.5% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 24.4% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 46.6% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 30.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gangwon 47.5 / Bucheon FC 1995 24.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.