Daejeon vs Jeonbuk
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-10-09 · 07:00 CET
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LWDDLThe score model made a Jeonbuk win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.23 – 1.40 Jeonbuk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 31.8% | 41.8% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 26.7% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Jeonbuk win | 39.6% | 31.6% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 53.1% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 32.4% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 56.9% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 35.7% | -9.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daejeon 47.3 / Jeonbuk 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Daejeon vs Jeonbuk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.