Jeju SK vs Daejeon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-30 · 12:30 CET
WDWDW
LWWDDThe score model made a Daejeon win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeju SK 1.14 – 1.32 Daejeon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK win | 31.0% | 27.6% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.1% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Daejeon win | 39.9% | 44.2% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 47.1% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 26.9% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 52.2% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 32.6% | -9.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeju SK 46.3 / Daejeon 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.