Ulsan HD vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-29 · 12:30 CET
WDWWL
LDDDWThe score model made an Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ulsan HD 1.33 – 1.29 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD win | 37.0% | 43.9% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.8% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 35.0% | 29.3% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 53.8% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 33.1% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 57.6% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 36.6% | -4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ulsan HD 46.4 / Gimcheon Sangmu 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.