Gangwon vs Gwangju FC
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-26 · 12:30 CET
WDDLD
LDLDDThe score model made a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.49 – 0.76 Gwangju FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 53.6% | 62.0% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 24.0% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Gwangju FC win | 18.4% | 14.0% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.1% | 44.5% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | 24.6% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 42.2% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 30.8% | -5.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gangwon 44.8 / Gwangju FC 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.