Gangwon vs Gwangju FC
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-26 · 12:30 CET
WDLLW
DLLDLThe score model makes a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.52 – 0.75 Gwangju FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 54.7% | — | — |
| Draw | 27.7% | — | — |
| Gwangju FC win | 17.6% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gangwon 44.3 / Gwangju FC 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.