Daejeon vs Ulsan HD
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-26 · 12:30 CET
LWWDD
WDWWLThe score model made a Daejeon win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.47 – 1.40 Ulsan HD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 38.1% | 40.4% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.6% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Ulsan HD win | 35.3% | 33.0% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 55.3% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.3% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 59.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 37.4% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daejeon 45.3 / Ulsan HD 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.