Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-25 · 12:30 CET
WWLWL
DLLDLThe score model made a Seoul win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seoul 1.51 – 1.02 Bucheon FC 1995.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul win | 47.7% | 65.5% | -17.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 20.7% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Bucheon FC 1995 win | 24.7% | 13.8% | +10.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 55.5% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 34.1% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 49.7% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 37.3% | -9.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Seoul 45.9 / Bucheon FC 1995 20.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.