Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeonbuk
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-25 · 12:30 CET
DWWDD
DWDLLThe score model makes an Jeonbuk win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu 1.13 – 1.31 Jeonbuk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 30.9% | — | — |
| Draw | 29.2% | — | — |
| Jeonbuk win | 39.9% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimcheon Sangmu 41.7 / Jeonbuk 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.