Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeonbuk
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-25 · 12:30 CET
LDDDW
DWDLDThe score model made a Jeonbuk win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu 1.07 – 1.28 Jeonbuk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 30.2% | 29.2% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 28.2% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Jeonbuk win | 40.1% | 42.6% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 48.1% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 27.5% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 53.5% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 32.8% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimcheon Sangmu 42.2 / Jeonbuk 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.