Gwangju FC vs Incheon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-23 · 12:30 CET
LDLDD
LWLDDThe score model made an Incheon win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gwangju FC 0.86 – 1.42 Incheon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC win | 21.9% | 20.5% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Incheon win | 49.2% | 52.2% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 41.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 21.8% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 44.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 28.7% | -2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gwangju FC 44.6 / Incheon 29.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.