Gwangju FC vs Incheon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-23 · 12:30 CET
DLLDL
WWDDDThe score model makes an Incheon win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.2% vs 77.7% implied (+2.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gwangju FC 0.86 – 1.42 Incheon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC win | 21.9% | 20.1% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.3% | +1.7% |
| Incheon win | 49.2% | 52.6% | -3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 41.6% | -1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 22.3% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 45.0% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 28.6% | -1.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gwangju FC 44.9 / Incheon 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.