Daejeon vs Gangwon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-23 · 12:30 CET
DLWWL
WDLLWThe score model makes an Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.5% vs 75.4% implied (+3.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.16 – 1.20 Gangwon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 34.1% | 37.3% | -3.1% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 29.7% | +0.2% |
| Gangwon win | 36.0% | 33.0% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 44.2% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 24.6% | -3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 50.7% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 30.7% | -1.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daejeon 44.8 / Gangwon 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.