Jeju SK vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
WDWDW
LDDDWThe score model made a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeju SK 1.10 – 1.28 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK win | 30.9% | 33.8% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 29.3% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 39.4% | 36.9% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 46.4% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 26.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 52.6% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 31.9% | -6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeju SK 45.1 / Gimcheon Sangmu 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.