Jeju SK vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
DWDWW
DWWDDThe score model makes an Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 74.9% vs 68.3% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeju SK 1.10 – 1.28 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK win | 30.9% | 36.3% | -5.3% |
| Draw | 29.7% | 29.7% | -0.1% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 39.4% | 34.0% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 45.6% | -3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 25.7% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 52.0% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 31.7% | -6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeju SK 45.3 / Gimcheon Sangmu 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.