Ulsan HD vs Gangwon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-16 · 12:30 CET
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DWDLLThe score model makes a Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.1% vs 73.0% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ulsan HD 1.25 – 1.18 Gangwon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD win | 37.1% | 34.9% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 29.2% | +0.0% |
| Gangwon win | 33.7% | 36.0% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 47.2% | -3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 27.0% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 53.2% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 32.4% | +0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ulsan HD 44.9 / Gangwon 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.