Ulsan HD vs Gangwon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-16 · 12:30 CET
WDWWL
WDDLDThe score model made an Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ulsan HD 1.25 – 1.17 Gangwon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD win | 37.2% | 36.9% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.9% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Gangwon win | 33.4% | 34.2% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 49.3% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 28.9% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 55.1% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 33.3% | -0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ulsan HD 44.7 / Gangwon 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.