Incheon vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-16 · 12:30 CET
LWLDD
LDDDWThe score model made a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Incheon 1.19 – 1.20 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon win | 34.9% | 43.9% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 35.6% | 26.6% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 43.6% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 23.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 49.5% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 30.0% | +1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Incheon 29 / Gimcheon Sangmu 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.