Incheon vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-16 · 12:30 CET
LWWDD
LDWWDThe score model makes an Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gimcheon Sangmu win — 35.9% vs 26.5% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Incheon 1.19 – 1.22 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon win | 34.7% | 44.9% | -10.3% |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.6% | +0.9% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 35.9% | 26.5% | +9.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 45.5% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 25.4% | -3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 50.5% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 31.7% | +0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Incheon 29.1 / Gimcheon Sangmu 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.