Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-16 · 12:30 CET
DLLDL
DWDLDThe score model made a Jeonbuk win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 0.86 – 1.26 Jeonbuk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucheon FC 1995 win | 24.3% | 20.8% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.8% | 26.3% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Jeonbuk win | 44.9% | 52.9% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.7% | 47.4% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 26.8% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.3% | 49.7% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 32.2% | -8.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bucheon FC 1995 18.5 / Jeonbuk 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.