Jeju SK vs Anyang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-15 · 12:30 CET
WDWDW
DWWLLThe score model makes an Anyang win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Anyang win — 40.0% vs 30.3% implied (+9.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeju SK 1.17 – 1.35 Anyang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK win | 31.4% | 40.3% | -8.9% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 29.4% | -0.8% |
| Anyang win | 40.0% | 30.3% | +9.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 43.9% | +2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 24.1% | +0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 50.3% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 30.4% | -6.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeju SK 45 / Anyang 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.